Ali G.
It's a little long but hilarious. Plus it's not from his T.V. show so it's probably new.
My Kid’s Crushing FOMO Is Ruining My Life
1 hour ago
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
The End of the Internet - Virus Warning!
There's a lot of rumors spreading out there about an April's Fools Day virus. There was even a 60 Minutes article this past Sunday about it. I was ignoring the warnings assuming it was going to be like every other over hyped massive attack or the Y2K problem but this story appears to have some legs. A virus infiltrated someone's contact list and sent the virus to everyone on it. Of course you need to open the email and click on the link which most of us will avoid doing but that was all it took. My friends brother was infected and probably spreading the virus along.
This one might be real. I figured it was better to throw out there this warning than feel guilty tomorrow...
Read more...
Even a Dead Cat Bounces
Is it a dead cat bounce?
What's that you might ask?
Well, even a dead cat bounces when it's dropped from high enough (and the markets peak was pretty dam high)
These graphs put together by Credit Suisse track the first 100 days after a major trough. The first graphs major recessions over the last 100 years. Notice what happened after the great depressions major trough...the markets bounced back but then fell again...I wonder what this recession will look like? 1929 or whatever the light blue line is (i can't tell what year it corresponds to)?
Don't be THAT Guy
Why do some guys feel the need to shave their legs. I really started to notice this phenomena at the gym during spin classes. Not that i was looking but the blinding light reflecting off their legs caught my attention as I was on the verge of dying from exhaustion. I barely think it's acceptable for world class athletes. Only in the rarest of cases does one billionth of a second make a difference in a race and i'm pretty sure that's the most it helps (maybe swimmers get more but they all where full body suits...) But what are these guys at the gym who are clearly not world class athletes (if they were, they wouldn't be working out at 24 Hour Fitness) thinking when they shave their legs.
It's especially amusing to me in the spin classes i take. You're in the class to excercise, nothing more. You're on a stationary bike competing against yourself. The class is only an hour and yet there are usually 3 or 4 guys that take it so seriously that they shave their legs...
Sure guys...you rock.
Read more...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Wagoner Gets a Cool 20 million
Rick Wagoner will likely reject his "Salaried Retirement Plan" and "Executive Retirement Plan" valued at over 20 million because of the scrutiny he would likely receive. It's not like he needs the money...it is estimated he made over 60 million in salary during his tenure with GM. But the fact is that he deserves the money. A contract is a contract. I'm not sure why we as Americans have started getting outraged over companies honoring contracts made before things went bad. If Wagoner decides to return the money, then good for him. But it SHOULDN"T be expected or forced upon him. This whole situation should teach us that huge compensations should be based on long term results, not short term gains.
If we start voiding contracts after the fact we have a long and scary future. Business has prospered in America partially because of our legal system and the fact that if you make a contract it can be legally enforced. How about we keep it that way.
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The Eagles of Death Metal
How can you ignore a band with a name like that! I highly recommend checking them out. They have been around for a while (2003) but that shouldn't matter. They have a unique '80s rock, punk sound.
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GM/Chrysler/Fiat confusion (fiasco)
Big news in the auto industry as Rick Waggoner was sacrificed (i mean reassigned) as the CEO of General Motors. The man took over as CEO 5 years ago and has worked hard to restructure the union contracts but apparently didn't work fast enough. Why is the government acting so inconsistently over and over again? They leave in place many of the big banking executives (even though they are trying their hardest to drive them away by threatening to tax their bonuses) yet force Waggoner to resign? They loan money to companies but don't want a spot on the board yet they want to make decisions as if they were. It's just very confusing to me.
Then there's Chrysler...a privately held company that has been run into the ground mostly because they don't make enough cars people want to buy. First off, i'm not sure why the government is even considering loaning them more money. Secondly, why is the government trying to arrange a deal with Fiat, an Italian company? If Chrysler thought it was a good idea, they would go ahead and do it! that's what happens in free markets.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Toxic Assets
I'm not sure i fully understand Geithner's toxic asset relief plan but I thought it's goal was to remove the "toxic assets" from big banks and financial institutions balance sheets. So, why when Bank of America and Citigroup are expected to ask for more bailout funds in the coming weeks are they buying up these assets? Aren't a lot of the toxic assets up for sale on THEIR balance sheets?
Free markets are the most efficient markets. Government intervention is a lousy idea that will misplace risk and the returns.
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"Disaster on K2"
This is one of those, if it weren't real you wouldn't believe it, stories. The discovery channel documentary, "Disaster on K2" follows a team of climbers attempting to summit K2, the second highest peak in the world but considered more technical and dangerous than Mt. Everest.
What happens next is unbelievable. I highly recommend watching it.
Read more...
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
The San Francisco Treat; not rice-a-roni but...
"Because of the unique design of St. Mary Cathedral, and the positioning of it geographically, a distinct shadow that resembles a woman's breast is cast both in the morning and in the afternoon on the West and East sides of the building respectively."
This appears on the side of a Cathedral! Incredible! I always thought God had a sense of humor and now i know it!
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Academic Earth
"Academic Earth is an organization founded with the goal of giving everyone on earth access to a world-class education."
While this sounds like complete b.s. the website has done a great job of collecting entire lectures from some of the most prestigious universities in the world. The website is easy to navigate and is always being updated with new content. To be honest, i haven't watched any of the videos yet but i will soon enough...i'm probably going to start with "Investing for the long run" from David Swensen, Yale's Chief Investment Officer and manager of the University's endowment. http://academicearth.org/lectures/david-swensen
Read more...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
CNBC debates Marijuana
It's really interesting hearing educated professionals debating Marijuana. It's even more interesting that the 7 out of the 8 commentators are advocating its legalization and it's all on CNBC with the market ticker running below it.
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Would Anyone really Miss Crocs? Mario Batali would!
Really!?!? You went from boating/outdoor shoes to high heeled, hideously ugly womans shoes? Who made that business decision...
So, here Crocs sits with significantly lower sales and hundreds of millions in debt. There share price which once traded at $68 now trades around $1. "In its annual report, Crocs said that auditor Deloitte & Touche expressed "substantial doubt" about the company's ability to continue as a going concern."
What started out as a local fad in Boulder spread like wildfire for reasons beyond my understanding and It's now catching up to them.
I guess the sad thing in all of this is that if they weren't greedy and looked at long term profitability along with the long term viability of the company they would probably be doing just fine. Companies tried to expand as quickly as possible to inflate the share prices. It's a risky venture that we are seeing rarely pays off.
In the end, i wouldn't miss Crocs if they disappeared tomorrow.
Personal side note: I used to lived directly above one of the founders of Crocs. He had 3 cars all with custom license plates that said "Crocs 1, Crocs 2, Crocs 3" The guy was a raging alcoholic and i always wondered how a guy like that could possibly run or help run a successful company. Turns out he can't.
Update #1: Mario Batali looks like his Crocs (thanks for pointing this out Matt!)
See it, Share it...Whoopi edition
This is a public service announcement based on a conversation i had last night with some friends...
Whoopi Has No Eyebrows: Check it out
Monday, March 23, 2009
The Market Rallies, is it justified?
Sources:
Not my List...Is it yours?
I stumbled upon this blog today (http://andreakristeen.blogspot.com/) and was drawn to the list she put together. It didn't take me long to realie how different this complete stranger and i truly are. How many of the items on her list do you "wish" you could do? I struck out.
"
Obama speaks, I listen
Obama appeared on 60 Minutes last night. I'm probably the youngest regular viewer by a couple decades but it's a great way to wind down the weekend. I expected Obama to stick to the script his staff put together for him and he did. but what is amazing about Obama, unlike Bush, is his ability to connect with people through speech. He proves it time and time again that he is one of the best orators of our time.
He didn't sugar coat the economic problems we face and his comments about the vetting process were spot on. It has become more about finding any scandalous detail from someone's past instead of determining if they can do a good job. It's no longer an interview process and more of a petty, drag you through the mud process. Smart, very qualified bankers, business men/women, hedge fund managers who could probably help more than anyone else are turning down very prestigious jobs in Obama's administration because they don't want to go through the scrutiny of the vetting process. It's not the massive pay cuts, it's not that they don't want to help fix the financial apocalypse; It's standing in front of congress that they don't want to go through...let's get over it and let the people that actually know something about how the markets function help.
It's long but interesting...Obama discusses AIG in Part 3.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Interesting art...Good 'ol Jimi
This piece of work is called, "Ghost in the Machine." The artist says this of his work,
"I am an artist who specializes in using non traditional media… old books, cassettes, playing cards, magazines, credit cards… whatever I can find. It feels great to work with strange, older materials. Things that have a mind of their own. Most everything I use has been thrown away or donated at some point. Past its prime, like some of the finest things in the world."
Read more...
I Hope Tomorrows headline reads... USC loses to Michigan State
Doug's Prediction
Michigan St. 74
USC 68
You can’t spell SUCK without USC.
P.S. It’s hard to be a UCLA fan these days. USC has built one of the best athletic programs in the country. Unfortunately, UCLA was left behind and bringing Rick Neuheisel in as their footbal head coach was a mistake. He's worthless.
Read more...Saturday, March 21, 2009
Beginning traders
Who wouldn't like to make millions of dollars overnight through some brilliant investment? While that's not very realistic, the old adage remains true; You can't win if you don't play. Granted the inverse is also true; if you don't play you can't lose but let's ignore that side for now.
Over the last couple months I have gained a lot f respect for Barry Ritholtz, a financial blogger, wall street trader and regular commentator on CNBC. The following is an excerpt from an interview he gave a while back that relates to new investors and where he believes the markets and economy is heading.
I thought it was worth posting. Enjoy.
"For someone new coming into the markets, what steps would you recommend they use to get started?
Start small, manage your losses, look at what you are doing and how it fits into the broader cycle. Make sure you learn something from every trade, winner or loser.
Read vociferously. Learn constantly.
What is the biggest stumbling block you see for most beginner traders, i.e. where do you see them making the biggest mistakes?
Their own brains get in the way. Stop thinking like a scared primate, and instead think like an alien visiting earth. Look around at the emotional monkeys around you, giving into their worst instincts. All that money is lying around, waiting to be picked up by someone without that wetware getting in the way.
In today’s trading environment, where do you see the biggest opportunities for traders?
In this environment, there is a real opportunity for the truly talented to shine. Look at some of the new names who have been hitting the cover off the ball. Anyone can make money in a bull market, but this has really separated the men from the boys. Some very well known managers and traders have been unmasked as plain lucky or leveraged bull market bums or just plain old fools.
We found that having a technological edge is a must have in this environment. We eat our own dogfood – we use the FusionIQ quant product in all of our stock picking and asset allocation. It has made us much better traders and money managers.
What do you see in store for the markets in 09?
More economic weakness, no recovery in 2009. Earnings will be awful. This is likely to be a 3 year recession at the least.
If a turnaround, when do you see that happening?
Economically? Late 2010 if we are lucky.
Marketwise, as we get oversold enough, as things get really cheap, that’s where you can aggressively buy. But we are not quite there yet."
The full interview can be viewed here, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/interview-with-a-financial-blogger/
I couldn't agree more with, "Read vociferously. Learn constantly." I had no idea what vociferously was so i looked it up (I'm not ashamed!) It means to scream, shout or holler; an outcry. I think he's arguing that you should question what you read and look at the data behind it. Statistics are too easy to manipulate.
Not to beat a dead horse but...
Courtesy of http://nicolasrapp.com/
When you buy insurance from a company the onus should be put on you to make sure they can repay you if needed. I'm not sure why the American taxpayer is on the hook to repay the insurance liabilities...
AIG Bonus Uproar Continued
Here's a pretty interesting NYT article explaining the mess and the problems associated with taxing away the bonuses.
My buddy Scott made some great comments last night. "The US threatens its status as the leader of the free world, ie. where legal contracts mean something. Obama better veto this mess."
I couldn't agree more.
He went on to say, "the next law should outlaw words like million and billion (or trillion), it loses its effect. 165,000,000 (AIG bonuses) or 1,400,000,000,000 (nations debt). (the) Nations debt looks a lot worse like that."
Again Scott, I couldn't agree more and apparently other do too.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Bonus takeaway?
I think the bonuses handed out at some of these failing companies like Fannie, Freddie and AIG was in poor taste but i don't think the government should pass legislation that specifically goes after the bonuses with a 90 percent tax (don't worry, state and local taxes should recoup the other 10 percent). It seems like it's setting a dangerous precedent. It says to me that if the government doesn't like how much someone gets paid they can specifically go after the person. This isn't a tax on all people who got a bonus. No no, it is a tax on some of the companies that received bailout money and some of them that paid out large bonuses.
I don't like this whole "do-over" mentality we are seeing from the government. They should be forced to deal with the repercussions of their hastily put together bailouts, regulations and laws. While it's completely unrelated i see a small connection with the Patriot Act which was unanimously passed after 9/11.
Read more...
Gmail just released a new feature that allows you to "unsend" an email. Granted, you need to make the decision within 5 seconds of sending it; but it's a start.
You should be allowed to retract an email from anyone at any time as long as the person hasn't opened it. Microsoft outlook has a feature similar but i'm pretty sure it leaves the email in the recipients inbox and just tells them that you wanted to remove it. This isn't much help. Who could resist opening an email, especially if it tells you not to open it!
This would solve a lot of problems. I'm usually way to quick on the send button and i have even been known to accidentally hit send keyboard shortcut in the middle of an email.
Read more...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Finally A Good Idea From the Auto Industry but Still Playing Catch Up
While it's much easier to ask the government for money it isn't going to get people buying cars again. Fear of losing a job is one of the major reasons people drastically reduce spending. This is especially true for big ticket items like houses and cars. In order to combat this, Hyundai, a Korean car company introduced the "Hyundai Assurance" program. You have probably seen their commercials. This is from their website,
"Finance or lease any new Hyundai, and if in the next year you lose your income*, we'll let you return it. That's the Hyundai Assurance.
At Hyundai we think it's easier to find a job when you've got a car. That's why, for a limited time, we expanded Hyundai Assurance, and we've added...something extra. A plus, as in Hyundai Assurance Plus. If you lose your income, we'll make your payments for 3 months while you get back on your feet, and if that's not enough time to work things out, you can return the car with no impact on your credit."
Read more...
At Hyundai we think it's easier to find a job when you've got a car. That's why, for a limited time, we expanded Hyundai Assurance, and we've added...something extra. A plus, as in Hyundai Assurance Plus. If you lose your income, we'll make your payments for 3 months while you get back on your feet, and if that's not enough time to work things out, you can return the car with no impact on your credit."
And guess what...Hyundai was one of three car manufacturers to increase sales last month and. Trust me, GM and Chrysler weren't the other two.
Today, AutoNation announced a similar plan. They are calling it the "Payment Protection" program and it will take affect at their 300 car dealerships. I would like to see more "outside the box" thinking like this instead of the all too common plan of just throwing up your hands and cutting costs (ie. jobs).
Stating the Obvious
Thanks CNN and all of you experts out there for making us all a little bit smarter today. The headline read, “Skiers can cut risks by wearing helmets, experts say.” Really? I had no idea. We all would be lost without these experts.
Experts have also concluded:
Stubbing your toe hurts, experts say.
Running makes people tired, experts say
Does the Pope really know All?
On his latest visit to Africa the Pope held firm on his stance that condom use is immoral. This is very unfortunate.
Much of Africa is plagued by STD's which is almost entirely preventable through the use of condoms. There are over 22 million people in sub-saharan Africa with HIV which not only affects the infected but leaves millions of children parent-less. And to think that it can be prevented....The Pope should be promoting the use of condoms. He probably has more influence and reach in the region than any other single person. The Pope should use his power to prevent unnecessary sickness, pain and suffering.
Read more...
Why the Auto Industry
The government is going to give auto industry parts suppliers 5 billion dollars. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4WnIZRxLwlU&refer=home) I remember the days when 5 billion was considered a lot of money. Today it feels like chump change (side note: Do you still pick up pennies when you drop them?)
The auto industry as a whole enjoyed decades as the only kids on the block. At the time they actually made better cars than the rest of the world and America's appetite for them was insatiable. Bigger, badder, more horsepower and flair; that's what we wanted. The big auto companies made huge profits and they were nice enough to share it with the hard working Americans that worked in their plants. They agreed to huge compensation and retirement packages and everyone was happy.
Unfortunately that little thing called globalization caught up to them. Trade barriers were removed, transportation costs dropped and Japan, Korea and others started to make reliable, attractive cars we wanted to buy. Instead of cutting expenses the American auto makers ignored the problem. Profits were down yet costs remained high. Seems like business 101 to me. American unionized auto workers make more than equally skilled non-unionized workers at foreign car plants IN AMEICA. It's not like I am comparing their wages to people in India or China. These workers are all American and have equal skill sets yet one makes more, huh? That doesn't make sense.
I don't want to sound like a grinch and say that we should let them all fail. What i want them to do is admit their mistakes and crush the unions. Let's make the American auto industry cost competitive with the rest of the world. The union contracts need to be dismantled and the only way i see it happening is through bankruptcy. If we allow the auto industry to continue to pay above the market wage for it's employees we, the American taxpayers will have to bail them out every couple years (or months).
I originally wanted to write about why politicians are so keen on saving the auto industry. Why not give the newspaper industry or consumer electronics industry (Circuit City) huge sums of money. I mean, they are also poorly run, don't they deserve some cash? But then i realized it was all probably related. What I believe got the auto industry into this mess, the Unions, probably has a strong lobby group in Washington. They can effectively threaten Washington with fears of double digit unemployment.
Read more...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
“Cheney Drinks Starbucks”
I was siting at a coffee shop today writing some application essays when I noticed a coffee salesman walk into the shop, which will remain nameless. Just joking, it was Pablo’s and they have incredible coffee. They roast their coffee in the shop so it smells incredible. So, the salesman and whom I believe is the shop owner and one of the coffee specialists (I made that up, but he looks like your classic coffee shop barista with his ripped jeans, thick rimmed glasses, beard and tattoos) all sat down at a table next to me. They placed 4 small bowls of ground coffee beans, a stack of empty small bowls, 3 cups of water, a large thermos of hot water and lots of spoons. They each took a generous portion of the ground coffee and put it in their personal bowl. They seemed like they were having a good time as they shoved their noses deep into the bowls and made the classic, mmmmm noise. They then poured the hot water into the bowl and let it steep for a little. Next, they used their little spoons to slurp up a little bit at a time. They would lick their lips, roll the coffee around their mouths and then think about what they had just experienced. To tell you the truth, I had a small urge to yell at them that it’s just coffee and not a 30 year old Barolo but I resisted. This was their livelihood and I didn’t want to belittle it… The owner and his cohort would take some notes, contemplate the experience some more and then jot down some more notes. This process repeated itself for each of the 4 types of coffee.
When the owner stood up he exclaimed, “that’s awesome.” If I were a salesman I would take that as a great sign that I was about to make a sale.
I really enjoyed how casual the whole process played out.
P.S. They inspected the whole coffee beans and one of them said, “I love the color!” I’m not sure why he then stuck it in his mouth…
It’s amazing how I can find distractions even in a place without internet access. (Why does the computer always want to capitalize “internet?” Am I missing something? The last time I checked it wasn’t a proper noun but I’m no grammar specialist. (and I have never actually checked)
Read more...Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Credit Card Defaults
I wouldn't get your hopes up.
Read more...
Credit card defaults jumped...again. Reuters reported that credit card defaults hit a 20 year high. American Express reported that its net charge-off rate, the debts companies believe they will never be able to collect—rose to 8.70 percent in February from 8.30 percent in January. Once again it appears that Citigroup made some poor business decisions. Their default rate rose to a staggering 9.33 percent from 6.96 percent just last month! This proves the valitility of the market and how fragile things really are. In a single month, 2 additional people out of 10 can no longer pay off their credit card bill. When people started to lose their jobs, I believe a large portion decided to continue to pay their credit cards bills while neglecting their house payments which led to an increase in home foreclosures. But, eventually, it becomes difficult to pay off your monthly expenses. All it takes is one unexpected bill; a broken arm, car registration and insurance, a parking/speeding ticket or two...and then you are behind your in your payments. Most of the time the interest credit cards charge jump with the first missed payment and it becomes very, very difficult to keep up.
The US public holds over a trillion dollars of credit card debt and much of it was securitized and sold like home mortgages. I think you will start hearing a lot more about credit card defaults. This will shock the markets, especially if in the meantime we convince everyone that the problems are behind us.
Did we really think this trend could last forever?
AIG Bonuses: It's only 170 million
I'm on the fence about this one. AIG is handing out 170 million dollars in bonuses this year. They claim they are mostly "retention bonuses" for employees they "need" to keep but it was revealed that at least some of the employees have already left the company and others are in the process of leaving. A little fishy...I think so.
The problem is that AIG has received taxpayer dollars to stay afloat...a LOT OF IT! If they weren't considered "too big to fail" they would be forced to file bankruptcy and there would be no bonuses.
Read more...
The government is heading down a dangerous road if they start to demand the money back. They would be directly interfering with the way the company is run and i believe it would be a direct blow to free market capitalism. The money should be handled just like a loan. If the government doesn't think the company is viable without their direct control then they should let it fail.
This is the same argument i would make for executive salaries. It's not for the government to decide.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Obama remix
This isn't my favorite but oh well...
Background: The voice is actually Obama's. It comes from his audio book, "Dreams of My Father".
The DIA Beast
Call me crazy but this is the last image (both mentally and visually) i want to see before i step into a giant metal aircraft that shouldn't be able to take off in the first place.
So, Jimenez was paid $300,000 for the "Mustang." I'm having a hard time deciding whether that's a normal price for a sculpture this size. Part of me feels that Denver could have used the funds in a better way...say, maybe for public education?
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Friday, March 13, 2009
Smug Alert via the Prius
This is a great viral ad! First of all, i love Andy Richter; "He get's no respect!"
Here's to you Matt.
Read more...
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Postsecret
I swear I didn't send this one but it is a great representation of how I feel (plus the bhuda guy cracks me up).
Here's one that's a little more intense. The anonymity of the website allows people's true feelings to come out and while i clearly don't agree with this persons sentiment I find it interesting and worthwhile to read it. It reaffirms the fact that racism is still around and that we can't assume that just because we have a black president the fight is over. Check out the website and let me know what you think...
PB&J
When I was young I hated Peanut Butter...
When I started High School I still hated Peanut Butter...
When I started college all the way to when I graduated, I hated Peanut Butter...
When I started my first real job to the time i got laid off...I HATED PEANUT BUTTER...
So why you ask did i decide to try it one last time? Who knows; but on the way to the super market today i decided to give it one last chance. This was it, my final attempt to like every child's favorite and easiest snack. It's been some weird ritual I've had for some time now. About once a year a PB&J sounds so incredible that I rush to the supermarket and buy a jar of Peanut Butter and some jelly/jam or preservatives. Every time over the last 25 years the result has been the same....disgust!
TODAY WAS DIFFERENT! I'm on board. Go figure...It's been a long time coming! I've heard that bananas is a great addition...any other thoughts?
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Newspapers to the TV
The newspaper industry is hurting. Denver's oldest newspaper, the Rocky Mountain News was closed a couple weeks ago. It was approaching its 150th anniversary which is an impressive fact on it's own but when you put it in the context that it was publishing news before there was even a State of Colorado then it becomes mind blowing that it's gone. Denver is officially a one newspaper city which is almost shameful. It's not just Denver's newspapers that are hurting. The Chicago Tribune saw an 8 percent decline in weekly circulation over a 6 month period ending last September and is currently on a hiring freeze along with massive layoffs across all departments. The LA Times is so skinny it looks like one of the free papers you can grab outside your favorite coffee shop or liquor store. The internet changed everything for the paper companies and they should have seen it coming. It was the giant elephant in the room they chose to ignore for most of the '90s. At first most papers wanted to charge for online viewing but people have an aversion to paying for online content. There's some kind of expectation that things posted on the internet should be free. Blogs filled the void and while they aren't a substitute for newspapers they do have a permanent home on the web. The interesting thing is that newspapers have spent millions of dollars and countless hours trying to figure out a business model for the future. The world has turned digital. We are turning into a world of instantaneous gratification and hard papers will become an artifact of the past during my lifetime (and I'm OK with it - I'm ready for some e-paper).
I'm not here to propose a brilliant business model for the newpaper industry. To be honest, I don't think they will ever make the revenue and profits they enjoyed over the last half century. What i do want to think about is whether Cable television will be replaced by the internet or some sort of on demand viewing. HULU is a clear example that they're already thinking about it and if you haven't seen it, GO! it's amazing! A big barrier is the fact that it takes actual video equipment to create a quality television show but the equipment is getting cheaper and cheaper every week. I also think that people will be willing to pay for a TV show if it's good enough but it has to be a nominal amount. I'm not going to shell out 30 bucks for a season of Lost but I might pay 5 bucks. HBO should be used as an example for quality television people are willing to pay for. They continuously have a flagship show that exceeds peoples expectations and keeps you coming back. The Sopranos, The Wire, 6 Feet Under, Sex in the City, Flight of the Concords, Big Love, the wild west show..., Rome and others. This is all i could think of at the moment but it's a very impressive list. If you haven't watched The Wire from start to finish you are missing out.
In summary, I believe television as we know it is going to NEED to change with the times much like the newspapers are realizing. Those that don't will have the same fate as the Denver Post. There are already huge amounts of people that watch everything on their computers and as it becomes easier and the quality improves that number will increase. Soon enough, the internet will be seamlessly integrated into the television you buy at the store and cable companies will need to adopt. Let's hope, as i actually like television, that they figure out how to generate revenue through internet viewership.
Read more...
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Monday, March 9, 2009
Awesome Shower? I think Not
I was excited to say the least. My legs were sore and I probably didn't smell the best after a long day of hard skiing. The shower was calling my name and I was happy to oblige. It's a large stand alone shower, granite tiling along with a sitting area. The shower head is overly sized with 100's of water spouts but there's one major problem. The massive, circular spout is directly in the middle of the shower ceiling. You would, well at least I thought this would be incredible. I figured water would cascade from the ceiling and drench my body. At the time I wasn't too concerned about using gallons upon gallons of water. I wanted the "perfect shower." Unfortunately what i got was a very confusing and unsatisfying experience. Within minutes I was craving, almost dreaming about how wonderful my windowless, small, dual shower/bathtub bathroom in Denver would be. You see, when the shower head is directly overhead there is no middle ground. You are either getting drenched or dry. There's no leaning your head back to wash out the shampoo. Instead, the water pours over your head and down onto your face, back, shoulders...everywhere. There's no controlling it. There's no way to stand, lathering the soap on your body while the water shoots onto your back keeping you warm and comfortable. Like i said, it's either all or nothing. And here's the kicker. How do you clean that "all" important area. You know the part I'm talking about. I'm referring to the undercarriage area (oh yes, i went there). THink about it...it take a little flexibility and a lot of ingenuity.
Read more...Inflation adjusted S&P 500
So, 12 year lows are bad. The last time the Dow was at 6,500 I was having my Bar Mitzvah and my voice was still cracking at the most inopportune times. But here's a better representation of why this is called the financial apocalypse, or as Mr. Buffet said today, "It's fallen off a cliff."
The graph comes from Crossing Wall Street http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/03/43_years_of_no.html. It does a great job simply showing where the market sits today. It shows the Dow at 1963 levels. Sounds a little worse than 12 year lows doesn't it!
Read more...
Privatizing Social Security
There aren't many arguments to the contrary that our social security system is flawed....massively flawed. It's official name is the "Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance" and is funded through payroll taxes. It's makes perfect sense right? Current tax payers pay for non-tax paying retiree's. The system works very well when population growth continues to raise and the average life expectancy stays relatively constast. Unfortunatley neither of these scenarios have held true. There was a little thing called the baby boom after WWII followed by a return to the original birth rate. Plus, it shouldn't be a surprise that people are living longer, much longer. Does this sound familiar? A friend of mine, Amir just made a great point that this isn't much different than a Ponzi scheme! It's a government sanctioned ponzi scheme. We all know how well those usually work out (see Bernie Madoff).
The social security program as we know it is unsustainable and WILL run out of money if nothing is done. Most believe it's around 2040 which seems like the distant, distant future but it's not, especially when you think of the size of the program and how many people rely on it as their sole income after retirement. Plus the governent has proven that it does NOTHING quickly (watch out, I'm going to continue to capitalize entire words to prove my points.) There have been many calls to privatize the program which would let individuals manage the money in the open market. For years i agreed with this idea. Why should anyone EXCEPT me manage MY money. I couldn't figure out why my tax dollars went to support some old person who is playing golf and enjoying life (probably drinking a martini because old people love martinis) while i'm working hard paying taxes. I have never fully trusted the plan. Why should I expect the next generation to pay for my retirement...what if they decide NOT to? Or better yet, what if they financially CAN'T! Then what...
So, the idea of privatization has always been appealing until recently. What if all of the money in the social security program was invested in the stock market. The losses would be staggering. Instead of the program running out of money in 30 years we would be forced to deal with it now.
It's a pretty scary thought.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Sun Valley Shop Owner
As you can tell I'm having a terrible time out here. The people are friendly and the dogs are friendlier (and everywhere). This was a friendly shop dog hanging out at a local ski shop. It's a mix between a Rhodesian Ridgeback and Mastiff. No surprise here that it was huge and loved trying to eat your shoes.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Great new Blog i'm following
"Here’s a short list of only the highest quality, bluest of blue chip, penny stocks:
- AIG (39 cents)
- Citigroup (98 cents)
- E*Trade (66 cents)
- Fannie Mae (39 cents)
- Freddie (39 cents)
- Unisys (37 cents)
Given the trading volumes, you might think these were real firms or something!
Now, for the not-quite-penny stocks:
- Ford ($1.83)
- GM ($1.83)
- Las Vegas Sands ($1.97)
- MGM ($1.99)
- CIT ($2)
- Kodak ($2.50)
- Bank of America ($3.15)
- New York Times ($4.00)
- News Corp ($6.15)
- Xerox ($4.36)
- International Paper ($4.22)
- Alcoa ($5.55)
- GE ($6.75)
- Dow Chemical ($6.56)
- Wells Fargo ($7.95)
- Dell ($8.50)
It looks like American Express ($10.83) is one of the few double digit stocks . . ."
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
A Southern Bell
A Southern Bell:
Starts in Daddies House; Moves to a Sorority House; Then into a Husbands House.
Read more...
End of story.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Let's just blame Obama
This graph from the Wall Street Journal shows that the markets have fallen since Obama's inauguration. It is the perfect ammunition for the conservative republicans to use against Obama. It's easy for them to claim that HE is responsible for the decline. But there is a huge difference between a correlation and a causation. More accurately said, correlation does not necessarily mean a causation. Here's a simple example found on Wikipedia, the most accurate and reliable website EVER!
"The more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is going to be.Therefore firemen cause fire."
Read more...
While this is a stupid example it does a good job demonstrating the point that just because two things occur in tandem it doesn't mean one caused the other to happen.
Yes, the economy has suffered since Obma's inauguration but did he cause the decline? This isn't a very easy question to answer and you will probably get very different answers depending on who you ask but one thing is certain; Republicans will think Obama is doing a terrible job (no matter what). Two things are certain:
1. Obama inherited a terrible economy.
2. He hasn't been able to fix it.
Semi-related Topic
I had a very interesting conversation with someone that works on Wall Street. He has unique insight into the financial apocalypse. Even though we are on vacation, i couldn't help but pick his brain a little. He points to the demise of Lehman Brothers as the single cataclysmic event. Sure, we have heard this before but why he felt this was such an important event was interesting. When Lehman failed the debt holders were wiped out completely. If you held Lehman brothers debt on Friday it was gone Monday. Keep in mind that on Friday Lehman was considered an "A" rated company and by Monday (really Sunday night) it was bankrupt. The problem wasn't in the fact that the government let Lehman fail it was the fact that months earlier the government decided to save Bear Stearns because it was considered "too big to fail," a phrase that is becoming way too common. People holding Bear Stearns debt were able to cash in.
To a certain extent, Wall Street runs on confidence and predictability and trends. When the government treats one company as too big to fail and lets another fail it becomes harder to predict what is a safe investment. Citigroup's debt is trading at 80 cents to the dollar. If the government had acted consistently when handling Bear and Lehman then individual investors would have a better idea whether they should take the risk and loan (or acquire) Citi's debt.
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